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Volume : IV, Issue : II, March - 2014

SUSTAINABILITY OF TRADE DEFICITS: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS OF BRICS

G. Ramakrishna, Flávio de São Pedro Filho

By : Laxmi Book Publication

Abstract :

The emerging economies such as BRICS excluding China are experiencing trade as well as current account deficits in the recent years. The countries such as India, Brazil, Russia and South Africa are facing persistingdeficits while China hassurpluses mainly because of its export performance and capital inflows. BRICS as a group has experienced deficits in its trade surplus during the study period, 1990-2011. Sustaining trade deficits is important in sustaining the phenomenal economic growth in these countries. This is possible only when exports and imports of these countries are cointegrated and the causal connection runs between exports and imports. The present paper is an attempt to verify the cointegrated relationship between exports and imports ofBRICS. The empirical results based on panel data unit root testsand cointegration testsuggest that the exports and imports of BRICS as a group are cointegratedsupporting the sustainable trade deficits hypothesis.The results based on cointergration regressionusing FMOLS and DOLS methods suggest that Husted's (1992)hypothesis has been proved.This implies the adjustmentbehaviour of exports towards imports in these countries in the long run. In view of this empirical findingit may be concluded that the present macro and trade policies have been effective in attainingthe equilibrium between exports and imports andBRICS as a group should continue with itspresenttradeand macroeconomic policies.

Keywords :


    Article :


    Cite This Article :

    G. Ramakrishna, Flávio de São Pedro Filho(2014). SUSTAINABILITY OF TRADE DEFICITS: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS OF BRICS. Indian Streams Research Journal, Vol. IV, Issue. II, http://isrj.org/UploadedData/4360.pdf

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    228. Arize, A.C. (2002), “Imports and exports in 50 countries: Tests of cointegration and structural breaks”International Review
    229. countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 14, 465–487.
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    231. countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 14, 465–487.
    232. Ahmad, Z. B., Lau, E., &Fountas, S. (2003), “On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN
    233. Arize, A.C. (2002), “Imports and exports in 50 countries: Tests of cointegration and structural breaks”International Review
    234. Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and H-J, Rhee (1997), “Are Exports and Imports of Korea Cointegrated?” International Economic
    235. Journal11, 109–114.
    236. Dickey, D.A., D. P. Hasza and W. A. Fuller (1984), “Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series.”Journal of the American
    237. Arize, A.C. (2002), “Imports and exports in 50 countries: Tests of cointegration and structural breaks”International Review
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    239. Journal11, 109–114.
    240. Arize, A.C. (2002), “Imports and exports in 50 countries: Tests of cointegration and structural breaks”International Review
    241. Baltagi B. H. (2001), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. (2nd ed). New York: John Wiley & Sons
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    243. of Economics and Finance, 11: 101-115.
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    245. Dickey, D.A., D. P. Hasza and W. A. Fuller (1984), “Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series.”Journal of the American
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    248. Statistical Association79, 355-367.
    249. Dickey, D.A., D. P. Hasza and W. A. Fuller (1984), “Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series.”Journal of the American
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    255. Arize, A.C. (2002), “Imports and exports in 50 countries: Tests of cointegration and structural breaks”International Review
    256. Dickey, D.A., D. P. Hasza and W. A. Fuller (1984), “Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series.”Journal of the American
    257. Dickey, D.A., D. P. Hasza and W. A. Fuller (1984), “Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series.”Journal of the American
    258. Statistical Association79, 355-367.
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    261. Arize, A.C. (2002), “Imports and exports in 50 countries: Tests of cointegration and structural breaks”International Review
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